Expanding production demand and improving market vitality —— Interpretation of main economic data in the first quarter of 2021 by the relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics
In the first quarter of this year, in the face of the winter and spring epidemic test and the uncertainty of the external environment, the achievements of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have been consolidated and expanded. The economic operation is stable and consolidated, and it is stable and good; Agricultural production is generally stable, and pig production capacity has recovered significantly; Industrial production maintained rapid growth, and equipment and high-tech industries grew strongly; Energy consumption recovered rapidly, and the intensity of energy consumption remained declining; The service industry has resumed growth and the market is expected to improve.
The economic operation started well, and the development momentum continued to increase.
Zhao Tonglu, Director of National Economic Accounting Department of National Bureau of Statistics
In the first quarter, all regions and departments made concerted efforts to promote the prevention and control of normalized epidemic situation and the effectiveness of economic and social development continued to show. China’s economic operation continued to recover steadily and its development momentum continued to increase.
First, the steady recovery of the economy continued to consolidate and the overall start was good.
In the first quarter, China’s GDP was 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% at constant prices; An increase of 10.3% over the same period in 2019, with an average increase of 5.0% in two years; Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, it increased by 0.6%.
In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 1,133.2 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 2.3% in two years, driving economic growth by 0.4 percentage points; The added value of the secondary industry was 9,262.3 billion yuan, up 24.4% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 6.0% in two years, driving economic growth by 8.6 percentage points; The added value of the tertiary industry was 14,535.5 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.7% in two years, driving economic growth by 9.3 percentage points.
Second, the production continued to recover, and the industrial support function was obvious.
In terms of industries, the industry maintained a rapid recovery trend. In the first quarter, industrial added value increased by 24.4% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 7.6 percentage points, with an average growth of 6.7% in two years. The added value of transportation, warehousing and postal services increased by 32.1% year-on-year, with an average increase of 6.6% in two years. The added value of the accommodation and catering industry, which was greatly affected by the low base in the same period last year, increased by 43.7% year-on-year, which promoted the steady recovery of the service industry. Information transmission, software and information technology services continued to maintain rapid growth, with an increase of 21.2% on the basis of a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with an average growth of 17.1% in two years.
Third, the three major demands have recovered steadily, and the role of consumption in stimulating economic growth has improved.
Consumer demand continued to recover. In the first quarter, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 63.4%, driving GDP growth by 11.6 percentage points, and driving GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points on average in two years, which is the main engine driving economic growth.
Investment demand grew steadily. In the first quarter, the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth was 24.5%, which boosted GDP growth by 4.5 percentage points, with an average of 1.2 percentage points in two years.
Net export demand has improved. In the first quarter, the net export of goods and services contributed 12.2% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.2 percentage points, and driving GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points on average in two years.
Fourth, the innovation kinetic energy has been steadily enhanced, and the market vitality has been continuously improved.
New kinetic energy has maintained rapid growth, and market vitality and potential have been continuously released. In the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 31.2% and 39.9% respectively. The average growth in two years was 12.3% and 9.7% respectively. The operating income of key areas of service industry has achieved positive growth. From January to February, the operating income of high-tech service industry, science and technology service industry and strategic emerging service industry above designated size increased by 38.2%, 37.5% and 31.6% respectively. The average growth rate in two years was 15.5%, 15.2% and 13.4% respectively.
Solid foundation of summer grain production and continuous recovery of animal husbandry production
Li Suoqiang, Director of Rural Department of National Bureau of Statistics
In the first quarter, all regions and departments did not relax their efforts to grasp grain production, and continued to promote the recovery of pig production capacity. The foundation of summer grain seedlings was good, animal husbandry production was stable and good, and agricultural production started well.
First, the overall growth of winter wheat is better than normal, and the production base of summer grain is good.
According to the results of remote sensing monitoring, the overall growth of winter wheat, the main crop of summer grain, was slightly better than normal in late March. Since sowing in autumn and winter last year, the climatic conditions in most wheat areas in China are good, the soil moisture is generally suitable, and the winter wheat grows and develops rapidly. At present, it is heading and flowering from south to north, and the overall growth is better than normal. Good seedling conditions lay a good foundation for the bumper harvest of summer grain.
Second, the production capacity of live pigs continued to recover, and the production of cattle, sheep and poultry increased steadily.
In the first quarter, the national output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry was 22 million tons, an increase of 3.87 million tons or 21.4% over the same period of last year. Among them, the output of pork increased rapidly, and the output of beef, mutton and poultry increased steadily. Milk production kept increasing, while egg production declined slightly.
The production of live pigs continued to recover, and the number of live pigs rose for six consecutive quarters. At the end of the first quarter, there were 415.95 million live pigs in China, an increase of 94.75 million over the end of the first quarter of last year and a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. Among them, the number of fertile sows was 43.18 million, an increase of 9.37 million, an increase of 27.7%. The number of live pigs continued to recover, and the chain has rebounded for six consecutive quarters, returning to 94.2% at the end of 2017. In the first quarter, the output of pork was 13.69 million tons, an increase of 3.31 million tons or 31.9%.
The output of beef, sheep, poultry and milk increased steadily, while the output of poultry and eggs decreased slightly. In the first quarter, 11.01 million beef cattle were slaughtered nationwide, an increase of 540,000, or 5.2%, over the same period of the previous year. The beef output was 1.65 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons or 6.0%; The milk output was 7.09 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons or 8.5%. In the first quarter, 70.59 million sheep were slaughtered nationwide, an increase of 4.86 million, an increase of 7.4%; The output of mutton was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 8.3%. In the first quarter, the output of poultry meat was 5.62 million tons, an increase of 390,000 tons or 7.4%; The output of poultry eggs was 8.11 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons or 2.1%.
3. Producer prices of agricultural products generally rose, with a sharp drop compared with the same period of last year.
In the first quarter, the producer price of agricultural products nationwide rose by 7.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in the price of live pigs, with an increase of 31.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year.
In terms of varieties, the producer prices of corn and soybean increased by 41.3% and 17.3% respectively, and the prices of rice and wheat increased by 6.8% and 7.8% respectively. Vegetable prices rose by 6.4%; The price of fruit dropped by 3.4%. The prices of live cattle and live sheep increased by 14.9% and 8.5% respectively; The supply of live pigs in the market increased significantly, and the price changed from 133.2% in the first quarter of last year to 6.3%. The prices of live poultry and eggs increased by 4.6% and 9.8% respectively.
Industrial production grew rapidly, and the benefits of enterprises improved significantly.
Jiang Yuan, Deputy Director of Industrial Statistics Department of National Bureau of Statistics
In the first quarter, the industrial economy continued its steady and positive trend since last year, industrial production maintained rapid growth, capacity utilization rate reached a high level in the same period in recent years, and corporate benefits recovered rapidly.
First, industrial production grew rapidly, with a high level of capacity utilization.
Industrial production maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 24.5% year-on-year, 14.0% higher than that in the first quarter of 2019, with an average growth of 6.8% in two years; After seasonal adjustment, the quarter-on-quarter growth was 2.01%, slightly higher than the level in the fourth quarter of last year.
Most industries continued to recover. In the first quarter, 40 of the 41 major industries grew year-on-year. Among them, 35 industries achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate of 13 industries exceeded 30%.
The capacity utilization rate increased significantly year-on-year. In the first quarter, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, up 9.9 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of 2019. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of energy and raw materials industries such as steel, oil and gas exploration and nonferrous metals has reached more than 80%.
Second, equipment and high-tech industries led the growth, and the consumer goods industry accelerated its recovery.
Equipment and high-tech industries are growing strongly. In the first quarter, the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 39.9% and 31.2% respectively. The average growth rate in the past two years was 9.7% and 12.3% respectively, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that in other industries.
The recovery of the consumer goods industry has accelerated. In the first quarter, the added value of consumer goods manufacturing increased by 18.6% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.2% in two years, showing a steady recovery trend. Among the 13 major consumer goods industries, 11 industries produced more than the first quarter of 2019.
Third, the market demand continued to improve, and the export-led role was strong.
Business orders continue to improve. The results of the questionnaire survey show that in the first quarter, 85.5% of industrial enterprises above designated size and 71.5% of small and micro-industrial enterprises below designated size had higher or normal product orders, both of which increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which was also higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
Exports maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, industrial export delivery value increased by 30.4% year-on-year, continuing its strong driving role since the end of last year. From the two-year average, the growth rate of industrial export delivery value reached 8.2%.
Fourth, the efficiency of enterprises has improved significantly, and the demand for employment has continued to rise.
Rapid recovery of enterprise benefits. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.79 times year-on-year, with an average increase of 31.2% in two years, continuing the rapid growth momentum since the second half of last year. Among them, more than 90% of the industry profits have increased, and nearly 60% of the industry profits have doubled.
The demand for employment in enterprises continues to rise. From January to February, the average number of employees in industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and for the first time since 2014, it has turned from decline to increase.
On the whole, the industrial economy continued its steady and positive trend in the first quarter, but at the same time, we should also see that the foundation of industrial economic recovery is still not solid. In the next stage, we should strengthen the market regulation of raw materials, stabilize the supply chain of industrial chain, and strive to keep the industrial economy running in a reasonable range.
Energy production is stable and good, and energy consumption intensity keeps declining.
Liu Wenhua, Director of Energy Statistics Department of National Bureau of Statistics.
In the first quarter, with the sustained and stable recovery of China’s economy, energy supply and demand showed a recovery growth trend, energy production was stable and good, imports grew rapidly, and supply support capacity was continuously enhanced; Energy consumption recovered rapidly, energy intensity kept declining, and new progress was made in energy conservation and consumption reduction.
First, energy production is improving steadily.
With the steady progress of a series of policies and measures to ensure energy supply, the production of major energy products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased in different degrees in the first quarter, with the average growth of raw coal, crude oil and electricity in two years relatively stable, and the average growth of natural gas in two years relatively fast.
Rapid recovery of raw coal production. In the first quarter, the output of raw coal increased by 16.0% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.5% in the same period of last year, with an average increase of 7.4% in two years.
Crude oil production has increased steadily. In the first quarter, crude oil output increased by 1.4% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed down by 1.0 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the average growth rate in two years was 1.9%. Crude oil processing recovered rapidly, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 16.5%, down by 4.6% in the same period of last year, with an average increase of 5.4% in two years.
The growth of natural gas production has accelerated. In the first quarter, natural gas production increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.0 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year, with an average growth rate of 11.1% in two years.
Power production has rebounded rapidly. In the first quarter, power generation increased by 19.0% year-on-year, while it decreased by 6.8% in the same period of last year, with an average growth of 5.3% in two years. Among them, thermal power increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with an average increase of 5.4% in two years; Affected by natural conditions such as dry incoming water, hydropower increased by 0.5%, with an average decline of 4.6% in two years; Nuclear power increased by 18.8%, with an average growth rate of 9.6% in two years; Wind power increased by 30.9%, with an average growth of 17.6% in two years; Solar power generation increased by 14.1%, with an average growth of 12.5% in two years.
Second, the increase in oil and gas imports
According to the change of domestic energy supply and demand situation, we will increase the import of crude oil and natural gas and reduce the import of coal. In the first quarter, the imported crude oil was 139.23 million tons, up 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, with an average growth rate of 7.2% in two years. Imported natural gas was 29.39 million tons, up by 19.6% and accelerated by 17.8 percentage points, with an average growth of 10.3% in two years; Imported coal was 68.46 million tons, down 28.5% year-on-year, up 28.4% in the same period of last year, with an average decline of 4.2% in two years.
Third, the rapid recovery of energy consumption
In the first quarter, China’s energy consumption showed a rapid growth trend. According to preliminary accounting, the total energy consumption in the first quarter increased by 14.6% year-on-year, decreased by 3.1% in the same period of last year, and increased by 5.4% on average in two years.
The energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size, which accounts for more than 60% of the energy consumption of the whole society, increased by 14.4%, down by 4.3% in the same period of last year, with an average increase of 4.6% in two years.
The intensity of energy consumption keeps decreasing. In the first quarter, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and increased by 4.0% in the same period of last year; The added value energy consumption of industrial units above designated size decreased by 8.1%, compared with an increase of 4.5% in the same period of last year.
The service industry has steadily resumed its development momentum and continued to improve.
Du Xishuang, Director of Service Statistics Department of National Bureau of Statistics
Since the beginning of this year, China’s service industry has made a good start, showing a general recovery growth trend, and its development momentum continues to increase.
First, the service industry showed a recovery growth
According to preliminary accounting, the added value of service industry in the first quarter was 14,535.5 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.7% in two years. The added value of the service industry accounted for 58.3% of the GDP, and contributed 50.9% to the national economic growth, driving the GDP growth by 9.3 percentage points, which was 21.1, 3.8 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry respectively.
The production and operation of enterprises are improving. In March, the national service industry production index increased by 25.3% year-on-year, with an average growth of 6.8% in two years. From January to February, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 37.8% year-on-year, with an average increase of 10.0% in two years, which is close to the same period in 2019; The total profit of service enterprises above designated size turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and the profits of 10 industry categories all improved compared with the same period of last year.
Investment in service industry maintained its recovery momentum. In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets in the service industry increased by 24.1% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.0% in two years; The actual use of foreign capital in the service industry was 237.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, accounting for nearly 80% of the actual use of foreign capital in the country.
The trade deficit in services has fallen sharply. From January to February, the total import and export volume of China’s service trade declined, but the performance of service exports was obviously better than that of imports. Service exports reached 335.35 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year; Service imports were 378.63 billion yuan, down 18.6% year-on-year; The trade deficit decreased by 146.88 billion yuan, down 77.2% year-on-year.
Second, new kinetic energy continues to grow rapidly.
First, the modern service industry remains active. In terms of added value, in the first quarter, the added value of real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, and financial industry increased by 21.4%, 21.2% and 5.4% respectively year-on-year, with an average increase of 6.8%, 17.1% and 5.7% respectively in two years, which boosted the added value of service industry by 5.3 percentage points.
Second, the new service industry has accelerated its evolution. Under the initiative of "celebrating the New Year on the spot", new consumption such as online shopping, online ordering and cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly. In the first quarter, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 25.8% year-on-year, with an average increase of 15.4% in two years, accounting for 21.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period. The online and offline integration of the consumer market has accelerated, and the scale of the express delivery market has accelerated.
Third, the development potential of key service industries has been rapidly released. In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets of high-tech service industry maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, which was 4.5 percentage points higher than the investment in fixed assets of all service industries, with an average growth of 8.2% in two years.
With the further consolidation of epidemic prevention and control achievements, enterprises continue to be optimistic about market development expectations, and the service industry is expected to continue its recovery growth trend.